The Cardinals' decision to acquire Riley O'Brien in a small trade in November 2023 has proven to be a strategic move, as the team has reaped the benefits of his success in the closer's role. With a 2.70 ERA and 12 saves in 20 innings so far this year, O'Brien has become a key player for the Cardinals, who are currently playing above their heads with a 24-18 record. However, the team's evaluation year plan may be thrown into disarray if O'Brien continues to perform well, leading to tough decisions for the front office.
O'Brien's success is a big reason why the Cardinals are playing a bit above their heads right now. His strong arsenal, including a sinker averaging 98.4 mph and a sweeper around 83.8 mph, has helped him lock down 12 saves and earn three wins this season. However, the team's front office must consider the potential risks associated with O'Brien's performance, including the possibility of control regression and injury concerns.
One thing that immediately stands out is the contrast between O'Brien's current control and his minor league career. While he walked 11.6% of batters faced in his minor league career, he's now walking just 2.6% of opponents this year. This raises a deeper question: Did O'Brien suddenly go from poor control to elite, or is this going to regress? Additionally, the team must consider the potential impact of O'Brien's age and the possibility of arm issues, given his high-velocity pitches.
From my perspective, the Cardinals have a difficult decision to make regarding O'Brien. On the one hand, he's under club control for four more seasons after this one, and his performance this year has been impressive. On the other hand, reliever performance tends to be quite erratic, and O'Brien's age and injury concerns must be taken into account. The team's front office must carefully weigh the potential benefits and risks of keeping O'Brien around, especially given the need for relievers at the deadline and the potential for trade value.
In conclusion, the Cardinals' decision to acquire Riley O'Brien has proven to be a strategic move, but the team must carefully consider the potential risks and benefits of keeping him around. As the season progresses, the team will have to make tough decisions regarding O'Brien's future, and the outcome of those decisions will have a significant impact on the team's success in the coming years.
